The rupture is permanent: no matter how the midterms end, U.S.-Canada relations will not snap back, says strategist Marcel Wieder

TORONTO, Oct. 30, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The United States and Canada have entered a permanent rupture that no change in leadership will repair. The U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3 will decide its pace, not its direction.

So argues Marcel Wieder, president and chief advocate of Aurora Strategy Global, a public affairs firm based in Toronto, who has advised campaigns, governments and corporations on both sides of the border for four decades.

“Sadly, the U.S. is no longer a trusted partner, and the rules of engagement have completely changed. It doesn't matter who the president is or which administration is in charge. It is going to take a long time to rebuild what has been broken, and Canadians have already moved on to planning for that reality.”

Marcel Wieder, President and Chief Advocate, Aurora Strategy Global

The midterms will not change the rules

The clearest evidence came last week on the campaign trail. On Oct. 23, the White House announced it would exempt selected Canadian goods from 50% tariffs, including plywood, paper products and refrigeration equipment, effective Oct. 30 — while quietly adding other products, from valves to carpets, in their place. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who faces a close reelection race, was quick to claim credit for the exemptions, saying they would help her state's blueberry, potato, apple and seaweed producers, 11 days before Mainers vote.

“When a tariff comes off because a senator needs her farmers to vote for her, that tells you everything,” Wieder said. “Washington is running an election strategy, not a trade strategy, and it will still be running one on Nov. 4. Canada cannot plan an economy around a carve-out,” Wieder said.

Talks between the two countries collapsed in late August, after the U.S. imposed a 50% levy on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods on Aug. 22; Canada's dollar-for-dollar retaliation took effect Sept. 8. President Donald Trump said Friday that Canada is “working very hard” on a deal. Hours earlier in Istanbul, Prime Minister Carney had set out his own timeline: “We could sign it this afternoon if the U.S. were there. If it has to be months from now or longer than that, or another administration before a proper deal comes into place, we would do that.”

This is consistent with Wieder’s comments in July.

"This research confirms what we are seeing on the ground: Canadians are done with speed for speed's sake," said Wieder on July 24. "I'm outraged by this, and now it's clear the public is giving Ottawa a clear mandate to keep its elbows up," he added. ("Elbows up" is a phrase coined by Prime Minister Carney during the election that comes from hockey, when players would go into the boards with elbows up to take out opponents.)

Wieder reads that as confirmation, not frustration. “The prime minister just said in public that Canada is prepared to wait past this administration. That is a country re-ordering its priorities.”

Carney is already looking past the United States

While Washington manages tariffs by election cycle, Ottawa is building a customer base that does not begin and end at the 49th parallel. Last week Carney traveled to Ankara, where Canada and Turkiye launched a strategic partnership spanning trade, energy and defense, with a long-term goal of $10 billion in two-way trade, up from about $4.3 billion in merchandise trade in 2025. His government is pursuing deeper ties with Europe and a parallel push into India and China.

“Diversification was a slogan in Canada for 40 years,” Wieder said. “It is now official policy with signatures on it. That does not stop because of an election in one country. Businesses that assume a post-midterm reset will restore the old trading relationship are planning for a world that no longer exists.”

The interference flip

The relationship's newest flashpoint is an inversion few would have predicted. On Oct. 21, the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa accused Canadian officials of election meddling, citing Industry Minister Mélanie Joly's comment that she was “meeting so many governors and potential presidential candidates” and Ontario Premier Doug Ford's push for retaliatory tariffs aimed at politically significant states. The accusation landed the same week Trump administration officials were criticized for comments about Alberta's separation referendum, which voters rejected Oct. 19 by roughly 3 to 1.

“It is a remarkable inversion,” Wieder said. “The administration accuses Canada of interfering in its election while its own officials wade into a Canadian secession debate, and while the separatist movement in Alberta was the side taking meetings in Washington. Canadians see the scapegoating for what it is, and it is hardening their views in ways no future White House will easily reverse.”

What the numbers sayPublic opinion research on both sides of the border backs the thesis. A Lord Ashcroft poll of 10,098 Canadians conducted July 31 to Aug. 17 found 51% now view the United States as an adversary or threat, and just 25% as a friend or ally. In 2022, 73% of Canadians called the U.S. an ally and 23% a threat. Most striking: 82% say managing relations with the U.S. will matter at least as much to their vote after Trump leaves office, and focus group participants described him as a symptom as much as a cause.

An Angus Reid Institute survey of Canadians in July found 42% believe their government should approach Washington as a potential threat or an enemy, up from 7% in February 2023. Americans, meanwhile, remain fond of their neighbors: 79% view Canadians favorably, and 59% opposed the tariffs Trump was threatening at the time.

“That gap is the story,” Wieder said. “Americans still like Canadians. They just do not trust their own government to make a fair deal, and neither do Canadians. Trust between the governments may take a generation to rebuild. Trust between the people is still there, and it is the bridge both countries should be building on.”

Wieder’s three scenarios after Nov. 3

1. Democrats win both chambers. A deal becomes more likely on paper, and so does the politics of blame. Expect investigative heat on the administration's trade war, but no quick restoration of the old relationship, and no Canadian confidence that the next president would honor it.
2. Split Congress. The most likely muddle: more carve-outs like Maine's, state-by-state and sector-by-sector dealing, and no comprehensive agreement. Canada accelerates diversification while American border states suffer the longest.
3. Republicans hold both chambers. The deadlock hardens into the baseline. An escalating trade war, continued interference accusations and a Canada that treats U.S. market access as one channel among many rather than the channel.

“Every scenario ends the same way: with Canada trading differently than it did two years ago,” Wieder said. “The midterms decide the pace, not the direction. The smart money on both sides of the longest undefended border in the world is already positioning for that.”

Wieder is available for comment and analysis throughout the U.S. midterm election cycle.

About Aurora Strategy Global

Aurora Strategy Global is a national public affairs, government relations and public relations firm based in Toronto. President and Chief Advocate Marcel Wieder has spent four decades helping organizations, governments and campaigns craft the strategies that move people to action.

Frequently asked questions

Will the U.S. and Canada sign a trade deal before the midterm elections?

No. A comprehensive trade deal is not expected before the Nov. 3, 2026, midterms. Formal talks collapsed in August, when the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and Canada matched them. Prime Minister Carney says Canada could sign “this afternoon” if the U.S. were ready, but is willing to wait months or until “another administration.”

Why did the U.S. lift tariffs on some Canadian goods in October 2026?

The White House eased 50% tariffs on selected Canadian products, including plywood, paper products, certain machinery and refrigeration equipment, effective Oct. 30. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine announced the exemptions on Oct. 23, 11 days before the midterms, saying they would help her state's agriculture industry, including blueberry, potato, apple and seaweed producers. The Wall Street Journal reported the move was aimed at helping Collins and other Republicans in close races.

Is the U.S.-Canada trade relationship permanently damaged?

Strategist Marcel Wieder argues it is. His position: the U.S. is no longer a trusted partner, and the rules of engagement have changed regardless of who holds power, so the relationship will take a long time to rebuild. Polling supports a lasting shift: 82% of Canadians in a Lord Ashcroft poll say managing U.S. relations will matter at least as much to their vote after President Donald Trump leaves office.

What trade partners is Canada pursuing beyond the United States?

Canada launched a strategic partnership with Turkiye on Oct. 22, covering trade, energy and defense, with a long-term $10 billion trade target. Prime Minister Carney's government is simultaneously deepening ties with Europe and expanding into India and China, turning decades-old diversification talk into signed policy.

Did Canada interfere in the U.S. midterm elections?

The U.S. Embassy in Ottawa accused Canadian officials of election interference Oct. 21, citing meetings with U.S. governors and talk of retaliatory tariffs aimed at politically significant states. Prime Minister Carney and Premier Doug Ford rejected the accusation, and it came the same week U.S. officials were criticized for remarks about Alberta's separation referendum.

How do Canadians view the United States now?

Negatively, and increasingly so. In a 2026 Lord Ashcroft poll of more than 10,000 Canadians, 51% called the U.S. an adversary or threat and 25% a friend or ally. In 2022, 73% called the U.S. an ally. A separate Angus Reid survey found 42% of Canadians say their government should approach Washington as a potential threat or an enemy, up from 7% in February 2023.

What happens to U.S.-Canada trade after the midterms?

Marcel Wieder maps three scenarios: Democrats win both chambers and the politics of blame intensifies alongside deal pressure; Congress splits, producing carve-outs and no comprehensive deal; or Republicans hold, hardening the deadlock into an escalating trade war. In all three, Canada keeps diversifying its trade away from the United States.

Who is Marcel Wieder?

Marcel Wieder is president and chief advocate of Aurora Strategy Global, a national public affairs firm based in Toronto. He has spent four decades advising campaigns, governments and corporations on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border.

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